No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: The Arizona Diamondbacks hung 15 runs on the Athletics (15-5); Ryan Waldschmidt hit his FIRST career home run ▶︎ watch.
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 154 times, projecting to 242. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (51-51) lead Mariners by 0.5. The COL single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Larry Walker in 1997. Hunter Goodman projects to 48 and projects to finish 1 short.
History movers: Marlins — Losing Streak: 9 now, record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies) · Corbin Carroll — Triples: 11 now, pace 17, record 36 (Chief Wilson).
Lines of the night: Cam Cauley hit his FIRST career home run ▶︎ watch; Steven Cruz earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch; Luis Rengifo hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 62.
The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 1-for-4 last night and held steady at 0 points to .332. The gap to .400 is now .068.
The so-what: through 104 team games, Yordan Alvarez sits 13 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (47 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
Batter Strikeouts
NEGATIVE HISTORY
Kyle SchwarberPHI
Kyle Schwarber is on pace for 242 strikeouts
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 154 times, projecting to 242. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times in 2009, a mark that has survived the highest-strikeout era in history.
98History score
- Current
- 154
- Projected
- 242
- Record
- 223 Mark Reynolds · 2009
Triple Crown (AL)95
Yordan AlvarezHOU
Yordan Alvarez ranks 1/1/1 in the AL in AVG/HR/RBI. He leads all three.
Fastest Pitch89
Misiorowski, Jacob
Record 105.8 · Aroldis Chapman
Misiorowski, Jacob's 105.5 mph 4-Seam Fastball on 2026-06-26 is the fastest pitch of 2026.
Runs81
James WoodWSH
148 projectedRecord 177 · Babe Ruth
Needs 26 more to reach 120.
Team Wins79
DodgersLAD
102 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners
35 wins from a 100-win season.
Team Wins79
BrewersMIL
102 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners
36 wins from a 100-win season.
Longest Ball79
Fernando Tatis Jr.
A 474-foot home run on 2026-07-21 — the longest ball of the season.
Home Runs78
Yordan AlvarezHOU
53 projectedRecord 73 · Barry Bonds▲ 2
Needs 16 more to reach 50.
Hardest-Hit Ball78
Oneil Cruz
Record 122.4 · Giancarlo Stanton
A 119.0 mph double on 2026-04-16 — Stanton's tracked record is 122.4.
Pace through history
A
Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons
Yordan Alvarez has 34 home runs through 104 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (45). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 23.7% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).
If the pace holds
A
A projected top-22 season
If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 148, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.
Franchise pressure
A
A franchise record is under pressure
The COL single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Larry Walker in 1997. Hunter Goodman projects to 48 and projects to finish 1 short.
The environment matters
A
This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
Under the surface
Deep signals
Tonight's stakes
What to watch today
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .332 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .522 clip the rest of the way (118-for-226). That is .005 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .518; an 0-for-4 raises it to .532.
Tightest race: the AL West — Rangers (51-51) lead Mariners (51-52) by 0.5.
Year-over-year: the Sox are 54-47 — 18 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (36-66).
Behind the plate: Felix Neon called the best zone last night (98.0% on 98 calls); Quinn Wolcott the roughest (92.2%). Worst call: a strike 5.5" off the zone.
Rookie watch: Kazuma Okamoto has 22 HR and 62 RBI in 99 games — the top rookie power line in baseball.
Clean gloves: the TEX have played 6 straight errorless games.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has 21 home runs — and none in 12 games. The longest quiet stretch of his season is costing him the pace.
From nowhere: Junior Caminero is now 5th in MLB in home runs — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.
From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 25 SB — 9 homers short and 5 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 33/40.
How to read the site
The chase, in plain English
Otto Lopez leads MLB at .332, but .400 is still a mountain. He would need 45 straight hits to get there today, or roughly a .522 average the rest of the way (118-for-226) to finish at .400.
Every chase gets a 0–100 History Score against the record book, allowing home-run pace, streaks, Statcast extremes, and even negative history to share one radar.