The Hot Stove. No games tonight. Below is the season that was — every chase at its final resting place.
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
A quiet night in baseball — no cycles, no bids, nobody's first anything. The chases did the talking instead.
James Wood has struck out 129 times, projecting to 215. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would rank No. 5 all-time — only 4 seasons since 1901 have topped it. But he's doing damage too: he is 3rd in MLB in home runs (28) — one every 13.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The so-what: through 98 team games, Yordan Alvarez sits 13 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (44 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
Batter Strikeouts
NEGATIVE HISTORY
James Wood
James Wood is on pace for 215 strikeouts
James Wood has struck out 129 times, projecting to 215. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would rank No. 5 all-time — only 4 seasons since 1901 have topped it. But he's doing damage too: he is 3rd in MLB in home runs (28) — one every 13.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times in 2009, a mark that has survived the highest-strikeout era in history.
94History score
- Current
- 129
- Projected
- 215
- Record
- 223 Mark Reynolds · 2009
Runs81
James Wood
149 projectedRecord 177 · Babe Ruth
Needs 31 more to reach 120.
Team Wins79
Dodgers
102 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners
39 wins from a 100-win season.
Team Wins77
Brewers
100 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners
41 wins from a 100-win season.
Home Runs75
Yordan Alvarez
51 projectedRecord 73 · Barry Bonds
Needs 19 more to reach 50.
Pace through history
A
Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons
Yordan Alvarez has 31 home runs through 98 team games, 12 behind Mark McGwire's 1998 pace at the same checkpoint (43). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44; 11.6% reached 50 and 0% reached 60 (n=155).
If the pace holds
A
A projected top-20 season
If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.
Franchise pressure
A
A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and projects to clear it by 1.
Only X seasons ever
A
Yordan Alvarez is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least .310 AVG, 50 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 23 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Alex Rodriguez (2007), Ryan Howard (2006), Alex Rodriguez (2001).
Tonight's stakes
What to watch today
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .334 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .498 clip the rest of the way (127-for-255). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .494; an 0-for-4 raises it to .506.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 24 SB — 9 homers short and 6 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/40.
How to read the site
The chase, in plain English
Otto Lopez leads MLB at .334, but .400 is still a mountain. He would need 42 straight hits to get there today, or roughly a .498 average the rest of the way (127-for-255) to finish at .400.
Every chase gets a 0–100 History Score against the record book, allowing home-run pace, streaks, Statcast extremes, and even negative history to share one radar.