The All-Star break: baseball pauses, the chases don't. The board below is exactly where the first half left it — every number here is what the second half has to answer.
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 144 times, projecting to 240. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (32) — one every 10.9 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The so-what: through 97 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 12 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (44 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
Batter Strikeouts
NEGATIVE HISTORY
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber is on pace for 240 strikeouts
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 144 times, projecting to 240. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (32) — one every 10.9 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times in 2009, a mark that has survived the highest-strikeout era in history.
98History score
- Current
- 144
- Projected
- 240
- Record
- 223 Mark Reynolds · 2009
Runs81
James Wood
149 projectedRecord 177 · Babe Ruth
Needs 31 more to reach 120.
Team Wins79
Dodgers
102 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners
39 wins from a 100-win season.
Home Runs78
Kyle Schwarber
53 projectedRecord 73 · Barry Bonds
Needs 18 more to reach 50.
Team Wins77
Brewers
100 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners
41 wins from a 100-win season.
Pace through history
A
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 97 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (42). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 27.9% reached 50 and 3.5% reached 60 (n=86).
If the pace holds
A
A projected top-20 season
If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.
Franchise pressure
A
A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and projects to clear it by 1.
Historical season twin
A
Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (78% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, speed, average; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
Tonight's stakes
What to watch today
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .334 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .498 clip the rest of the way (127-for-255). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .494; an 0-for-4 raises it to .506.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 24 SB — 9 homers short and 6 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/40.
How to read the site
The chase, in plain English
Otto Lopez leads MLB at .334, but .400 is still a mountain. He would need 42 straight hits to get there today, or roughly a .498 average the rest of the way (127-for-255) to finish at .400.
Every chase gets a 0–100 History Score against the record book, allowing home-run pace, streaks, Statcast extremes, and even negative history to share one radar.