The All-Star break: baseball pauses, the chases don't. The board below is exactly where the first half left it — every number here is what the second half has to answer.
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 144 times, projecting to 240. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (32) — one every 10.9 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The so-what: through 97 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 12 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (44 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .334 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .498 clip the rest of the way (127-for-255). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .494; an 0-for-4 raises it to .506.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 24 SB — 9 homers short and 6 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/40.
Historical intelligence
Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 97 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (42). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 27.9% reached 50 and 3.5% reached 60 (n=86).
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playIf James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and projects to clear it by 1.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (78% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, speed, average; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021
