The All-Star break: baseball pauses, the chases don't. The board below is exactly where the first half left it — every number here is what the second half has to answer.
Historic Chases · 2026-07-14 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 144 times, projecting to 240. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (32) — one every 10.9 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.6% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 47 in 405 this season); Junior Caminero — walk rate up from 6.4% to 13.0% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 53 in 408 this season). 2 of 281 rate comparisons across 47 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 97 team games, a 53-homer pace — 10 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (42 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Mariners (48-49), with the Red Sox (46-48) half a game back.
On this date in 1995, Ramon Martinez of the Dodgers threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 24 SB — 9 homers and 6 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/40.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 97 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (42). Comparable chases finished with a median of 47 (95% CI 45-48); 28.2% reached 50 (19.8-38.6% at 95% confidence), from 85 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-20 season
If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and would clear it by 1.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (78% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, speed, average; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.334AVG
42 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
32HR
53 projected HR · 10 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
127H
212 projected H · 30 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
34SB
57 projected SB · 44 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
262B
43 projected 2B · 14 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
103B
17 projected 3B · 11 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.318· 31 HR · 70 RBI
4 / 2 / 2 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
21/24HR/SB
35/40 projected HR/SB · team-game pace
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Dodgers
61W
102 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+149
+249 projected run differential