Team Chases

Best record, last 30 days 2026-08-02 → 2026-09-01 · 30 of 30 clubs with 10+ games

1. 1 Phillies 20-7 .741 +41
2. · Rays 18-9 .667 +26
3. · Royals 16-10 .615 +23
4. · Brewers 17-11 .607 +33
5. · Yankees 16-11 .593 +25

The runs behind it: the Phillies outscored their opponents 141–100 in this window, 1.52 a game. Runs like that usually buy a .652 record; this one is .088 better than that, so some of the margin is close games going their way.

The Phillies came into this window playing to a .512 level, and over 27 games a club of that quality posts a run this good about once in 57 tries on its own. But the board tests 30 clubs across 3 windows — 90 chances — and if every one of those chances were as unlikely as this one you would still expect about 1.6 of them to come off, so seeing one is what a board this size turns up anyway rather than anything about this club. What is left is a board position: the Phillies sit first on this window's board among the 30 clubs that played 10 games or more.

Whether they are hotter than the Rays is a different question, and no window a season can offer will settle it: the gap is .074, the margin runs -.164 to +.302, and an exact test on the two records gives 76.6%. Over windows this length — 27 games and 27 — two records have to sit about .222 apart before the arithmetic can tell them apart at all, and the true difference between the two best clubs in a 30-club league is nearer .020.

Best record, last 60 days 2026-07-03 → 2026-09-01 · 30 of 30 clubs with 10+ games

1. 1 Red Sox 37-16 .698 +86
2. · Brewers 32-21 .604 +41
3. · Phillies 30-21 .588 +32
4. · Braves 31-22 .585 +23
5. · Rays 31-22 .585 +18

The runs behind it: the Red Sox outscored their opponents 282–196 in this window, 1.62 a game. Runs like that usually buy a .660 record; this one is .038 better than that, so some of the margin is close games going their way.

The Red Sox came into this window playing to a .477 level, and over 53 games a club of that quality posts a run this good about once in 384 tries on its own. But the board tests 30 clubs across 3 windows — 90 chances — and across those 90 chances a run this good turns up somewhere at most 23.5% of the time, short of the bar for saying the run is more than a good stretch. What is left is a board position: the Red Sox sit first on this window's board among the 30 clubs that played 10 games or more.

Whether they are hotter than the Brewers is a different question, and no window a season can offer will settle it: the gap is .094, the margin runs -.085 to +.266, and an exact test on the two records gives 41.5%. Over windows this length — 53 games and 53 — two records have to sit about .113 apart before the arithmetic can tell them apart at all, and the true difference between the two best clubs in a 30-club league is nearer .020.

Best record, since the All-Star break 2026-07-11 → 2026-09-01 · 30 of 30 clubs with 10+ games

1. 1 Red Sox 29-16 .644 +55
2. · Brewers 27-16 .628 +42
3. · Braves 27-17 .614 +17
4. · Rays 27-17 .614 +25
5. · Phillies 25-17 .595 +47

The runs behind it: the Red Sox outscored their opponents 239–184 in this window, 1.22 a game. Runs like that usually buy a .617 record; the record and the runs agree.

Measured from July 11: the standings row stored for July 12 did not move, because that night's results had already been credited to July 11. Subtracting from July 11 therefore leaves the July 12 games outside this window — which is what the label means, since the break began after they were played.

The Red Sox came into this window playing to a .496 level, and over 45 games a club of that quality posts a run this good about once in 22 tries on its own. But the board tests 30 clubs across 3 windows — 90 chances — and if every one of those chances were as unlikely as this one you would still expect about 4.0 of them to come off, so seeing one is what a board this size turns up anyway rather than anything about this club. What is left is a board position: the Red Sox sit first on this window's board among the 30 clubs that played 10 games or more.

Whether they are hotter than the Brewers is a different question, and no window a season can offer will settle it: the gap is .017, the margin runs -.178 to +.210, and an exact test on the two records gives 100.0%. Over windows this length — 45 games and 43 — two records have to sit about .116 apart before the arithmetic can tell them apart at all, and the true difference between the two best clubs in a 30-club league is nearer .020.