The Hot Stove. No games tonight. Below is the season that was — every chase at its final resting place.
A quiet night in baseball — no cycles, no bids, nobody's first anything. The chases did the talking instead.
James Wood has struck out 129 times, projecting to 215. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would rank No. 5 all-time — only 4 seasons since 1901 have topped it. But he's doing damage too: he is 3rd in MLB in home runs (28) — one every 13.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The so-what: through 98 team games, Yordan Alvarez sits 13 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (44 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .334 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .498 clip the rest of the way (127-for-255). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .494; an 0-for-4 raises it to .506.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 24 SB — 9 homers short and 6 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/40.
Historical intelligence
Yordan Alvarez has 31 home runs through 98 team games, 12 behind Mark McGwire's 1998 pace at the same checkpoint (43). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44; 11.6% reached 50 and 0% reached 60 (n=155).
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playIf James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and projects to clear it by 1.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least .310 AVG, 50 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 23 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Alex Rodriguez (2007), Ryan Howard (2006), Alex Rodriguez (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021
