Historic Chases · 2026-04-06 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-04-06

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Cody Laweryson earned his first career save ▶︎ watch.

Andy Pages is hitting OVER .400. Needs a .396 clip the rest of the way to finish at .400.

Andy Pages sits at .474 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

The so-what: Cam Smith is on a 40/40 pace — 3 HR and 3 SB, projecting to 44/44. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.

The .400 chase: Andy Pages went 2-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 3 points to .474. He is OVER .400.

Also last night: Dalton Rushing — a bench bat with 3 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch.

History movers: Christian Yelich — Franchise Hits: 15 now, pace 243, record 219 (Cecil Cooper, 1980); Franchise RBI: 9 now, pace 145.8, record 141 (Prince Fielder, 2009) · Ian Happ — Franchise Home Runs: 4 now, pace 64.8, record 66 (Sammy Sosa, 1998).

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Cam Smith is on a 40/40 pace — 3 HR / 3 SB, projecting to 44/44. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Andy Pages carries a .474 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .396 clip the rest of the way (229-for-578). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .394; an 0-for-4 raises it to .399.

On this date in 2005, Brad Wilkerson hit for the cycle.

30/30 watch: Cam Smith sits at 3 HR / 3 SB — 27 homers and 27 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 44/44.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Drake Baldwin versus the great home-run seasons

Drake Baldwin has 5 home runs through 11 team games, 1 ahead of Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (4). Comparable chases finished with a median of 25 (95% CI 24-25); 1.5% reached 50 (1-2.2% at 95% confidence), from 1614 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-1 season

If Drake Baldwin finishes at the current projection of 74, it would be the most home runs in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Harmon Killebrew in 1964. Matt Wallner projects to 49 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Drake Baldwin is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Drake Baldwin would reach at least .310 AVG, 60 HR, and 150 RBI. Only 2 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. It is the tightest of 3 statistical combinations the engine checked. The recent company includes Sammy Sosa (2001), Babe Ruth (1927).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400