Historic Chases · 2026-04-19 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-04-19

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Nick Yorke hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 17 ▶︎ watch; Taylor Ward hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 22 ▶︎ watch.

Taylor Ward has 11 doubles — projecting to 81, +2 vs Earl Webb's 67 pace. That pace would be the most doubles in any season since 1901. Needs 39 more to reach 50.

Andy Pages sits at .382 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 6 HR and 9 SB, projecting to 44/66. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez, after homering — Triple Crown (MLB); Total Bases: 64 now, pace 451, record 457 (Babe Ruth, 1921) · Aaron Judge, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 9 now, pace 66.3, record 62 (Aaron Judge, 2022); Home Runs: 9 now, pace 66, record 73 (Barry Bonds, 2001).

Lines of the night: Graham Ashcraft earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Kyle Karros hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 22 ▶︎ watch; Derek Hill hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 17 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Andy Pages went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 7 points to .382. That is 76 at-bats over 21 team games — a hot start rather than a .400 pace, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 19 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.

Sweep watch: the Reds swept the Twins (3 games) — their 2nd sweep in 17 days. Our game-by-game record starts 2026-03-25, so that is a floor, not a season total. 4 other clubs were swept the same night.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 6 HR / 9 SB, projecting to 44/66. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Andy Pages carries a .382 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .404 clip the rest of the way (206-for-510). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .401; an 0-for-4 raises it to .407.

Streak ladder: the Mets have lost 11 straight — 10 shy of the 2024 White Sox (AL record) (21); 12 shy of the 1961 Phillies (modern record) (23).

On this date in 2012, Curtis Granderson hit 3 home runs in one game.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 6 HR / 9 SB — 24 homers and 21 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 44/66.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 10 home runs through 23 team games, even with Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (10). Comparable chases finished with a median of 34 (95% CI 32-35); 5% reached 50 (3.3-7.5% at 95% confidence), from 437 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-1 season

If Matt Olson finishes at the current projection of 74, it would be the most doubles in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 52 home runs, set by George Foster in 1977. Sal Stewart projects to 52 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Yordan Alvarez is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least 190 hits, and 60 HR. Only 2 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. It is the tightest of 2 statistical combinations the engine checked. The recent company includes Sammy Sosa (1998), Babe Ruth (1927).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400