Historic Chases · 2026-05-07 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-07

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Hunter Bigge earned his first career win.

James Wood has struck out 58 times, projecting to 247. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

Ildemaro Vargas sits at .360 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

History movers: Cubs — Win Streak: 9 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017) · Aaron Judge — Franchise Home Runs: 15 now, pace 63.9, record 62 (Aaron Judge, 2022).

Also last night: Bobby Witt Jr. — a bench bat with 38 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Ildemaro Vargas went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 4 points to .360. That is 114 at-bats over 36 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 12 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.

Sweep watch: the Cubs swept the Reds (4 games) — their 4th sweep in 21 days. Only 11.2% of team-seasons since 1897 have swept 4 clubs inside 30 days — 340 of 3043.

The so-what: Aaron Judge has 15 home runs through 38 team games, a 64-homer pace — 0 ahead of Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (15 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Ildemaro Vargas carries a .360 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .414 clip the rest of the way (165-for-399). That is .003 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .410; an 0-for-4 raises it to .418.

Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Mariners (18-20), with the White Sox (17-20) half a game back.

On this date in 2021, Wade Miley of the Reds threw a no-hitter (one of 4 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 9 HR / 13 SB — 21 homers and 17 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 38/55.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 15 home runs through 38 team games, even with Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (15). Comparable chases finished with a median of 40 (95% CI 38-41); 11.8% reached 50 (8.2-16.7% at 95% confidence), from 221 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-2 season

If Matt Olson finishes at the current projection of 64, it would rank No. 2 among all seasons since 1901 — only 1 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Troy Glaus in 2000. Mike Trout projects to 47 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400