Spencer Arrighetti carried a NO-HITTER into the 8th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-05-15 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
James Wood has struck out 67 times, projecting to 241. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.
History movers: Jonathan Aranda — Franchise RBI: 33 now, pace 124.3, record 121 (Carlos Peña, 2007).
Lines of the night: The Philadelphia Phillies came back from 6 runs down to win 11-9, and the Pittsburgh Pirates blew a 6-run lead; Cedric Mullins — a bench bat with 38 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch; Luis Arraez hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 42 ▶︎ watch.
The .400 chase: Ildemaro Vargas went 4-for-5 last night and pushed his average up 16 points to .347. That is 144 at-bats over 43 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 9 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 45 team games, a 72-homer pace — 4 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (24 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The .400 burndown: Ildemaro Vargas carries a .347 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .421 clip the rest of the way (168-for-399). That is .005 easier than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .418; an 0-for-4 raises it to .425.
Wild-card watch: the AL's last wild-card spot belongs to a losing record — the Mariners and the Rangers are level on 22-24, with the Orioles (20-25) 1 1/2 games back.
On this date in 2022, 2 Reds pitchers combined for a no-hitter (one of 6 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 16 SB — 20 homers and 14 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 36/58.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 45 team games, 4 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (24). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48 (95% CI 42-50); 32.1% reached 50 (17.9-50.7% at 95% confidence), from 28 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-2 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 72, it would rank No. 2 among all seasons since 1901 — only 1 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 131 RBI, set by Vladimir Guerrero in 1999. CJ Abrams projects to 130 and would finish 1 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 125 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.347AVG
13 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
20HR
72 projected HR · 4 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
59H
212 projected H · 14 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
18SB
65 projected SB · 18 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
152B
54 projected 2B · 4 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
43B
15 projected 3B · 6 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.321· 14 HR · 30 RBI
7 / 5 / 13 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
10/16HR/SB
36/58 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 8 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
31W
112 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Braves
+92
+331 projected run differential