Historic Chases · 2026-05-18 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-18

J.T. Ginn carried a NO-HITTER into the 9th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 72 times, projecting to 248. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

Lines of the night: Javier Sanoja hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 35 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 0-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 7 points to .337. That is 187 at-bats over 48 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 7 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 48 team games, a 68-homer pace — 5 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (25 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .337 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .428 clip the rest of the way (190-for-444). That is .004 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .425; an 0-for-4 raises it to .432.

Wild-card watch: the AL's last wild-card spot belongs to a losing record — the Mariners and the Rangers are level on 23-26, with the Twins (22-26) half a game back.

On this date in 2021, Spencer Turnbull of the Tigers threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 16 SB — 20 homers and 14 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/55.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 48 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (25). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 42-46); 19.1% reached 50 (11.5-30% at 95% confidence), from 68 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-3 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 68, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 46 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400