No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Charles McAdoo hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; Braydon Fisher earned his first career save ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-05-29 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Oneil Cruz has struck out 89 times, projecting to 249. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.
History movers: CJ Abrams — Franchise RBI: 47 now, pace 131.3, record 131 (Vladimir Guerrero, 1999) · Kyle Schwarber, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 22 now, pace 62.5, record 58 (Ryan Howard, 2006); Home Runs: 22 now, pace 63, record 73 (Barry Bonds, 2001).
Lines of the night: The Toronto Blue Jays came back from 5 runs down to win 6-5, and the Baltimore Orioles blew a 5-run lead; Thomas Saggese hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 29 ▶︎ watch; David Hamilton hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 44 ▶︎ watch.
What changed from last season: Rafael Devers — walk rate down from 15.6% to 6.0% (112 in 719 plate appearances in 2025, 14 in 233 this season). 1 of 203 rate comparisons across 34 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 22 home runs through 57 team games, a 63-homer pace — 8 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (30 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
On this date in 2010, Roy Halladay of the Phillies threw a no-hitter.
30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 12 HR / 17 SB — 18 homers and 13 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/47.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 22 home runs through 57 team games, 8 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (30). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 42-47); 22.4% reached 50 (13.6-34.7% at 95% confidence), from 58 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-6 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 63, it would rank No. 6 among all seasons since 1901 — only 5 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 131 RBI, set by Vladimir Guerrero in 1999. CJ Abrams projects to 131 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.341AVG
23 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
22HR
63 projected HR · 8 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
76H
212 projected H · 18 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
22SB
61 projected SB · 24 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
182B
50 projected 2B · 6 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
83B
23 projected 3B · 4 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.303· 17 HR · 39 RBI
11 / 4 / 9 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
12/17HR/SB
34/47 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 6 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
39W
109 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+122
+347 projected run differential