No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: James Outman hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 50 ▶︎ watch; Noelvi Marte hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 18 ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-06-12 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 102 times, projecting to 239. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (24) — one every 10.4 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
History movers: Yordan Alvarez, after a two-homer night — Franchise Home Runs: 24 now, pace 54.8, record 47 (Jeff Bagwell, 2000).
Lines of the night: Jacob Misiorowski struck out 15 over 9.0 IP ▶︎ watch.
The so-what: Yordan Alvarez has 24 home runs through 71 team games, a 55-homer pace — 14 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (38 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Rangers (34-35), with the Blue Jays (34-36) half a game back.
On this date in 2007, Justin Verlander of the Tigers threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 14 HR / 21 SB — 16 homers and 9 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 32/49.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons
Yordan Alvarez has 24 home runs through 71 team games, 14 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (38). Comparable chases finished with a median of 43 (95% CI 42-44); 19% reached 50 (13.3-26.4% at 95% confidence), from 137 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-22 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 56, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 196 and would finish 2 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Yordan Alvarez is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least .320 AVG, 50 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 14 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. It is the tightest of 3 statistical combinations the engine checked. The recent company includes Aaron Judge (2025), Aaron Judge (2024), Barry Bonds (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.342AVG
27 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
24HR
55 projected HR · 14 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
94H
218 projected H · 19 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
25SB
58 projected SB · 31 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
202B
46 projected 2B · 9 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
83B
19 projected 3B · 7 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.321· 24 HR · 54 RBI
6 / 1 / 3 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
14/21HR/SB
32/49 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 2 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
45W
106 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+137
+317 projected run differential