No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Paxton Schultz earned his first career win; Robbie Ray carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a double ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-06-16 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 107 times, projecting to 237. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (25) — one every 10.6 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
History movers: Braves — Team Wins: pace 103, record 116 (1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners).
Lines of the night: Blas Castaño earned his first career win.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 25 home runs through 73 team games, a 55-homer pace — 13 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (38 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Blue Jays and the Rangers, level on 35-38, with the Twins (35-40) 2 games back.
On this date in 1978, Tom Seaver of the Reds threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 14 HR / 21 SB — 16 homers and 9 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 31/46.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 25 home runs through 73 team games, 13 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (38). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42 (95% CI 41-44); 15.6% reached 50 (10.5-22.5% at 95% confidence), from 141 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-20 season
If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Harmon Killebrew in 1964. Byron Buxton projects to 50 and would clear it by 1.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (72% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, runs, average; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.338AVG
30 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
25HR
55 projected HR · 13 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
98H
215 projected H · 22 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
27SB
59 projected SB · 32 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
212B
46 projected 2B · 10 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
83B
18 projected 3B · 8 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.326· 24 HR · 54 RBI
3 / 2 / 4 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
14/21HR/SB
31/46 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 5 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Dodgers
47W
103 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+143
+313 projected run differential