No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Dansby Swanson drove in 7 runs ▶︎ watch; Connor Wong hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 33 ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-06-24 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Zach Neto has struck out 117 times, projecting to 231. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.
History movers: Dodgers — Team Wins: pace 104, record 116 (1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners).
Lines of the night: LuJames Groover hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; Dansby Swanson went 5-for-9, 2 HR, 11 RBI across a DOUBLEHEADER — a monster doubleheader day.
Sweep watch: the Dodgers swept the Twins (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 31 days. 3 other clubs were swept the same night.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 29 home runs through 80 team games, a 59-homer pace — 10 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (39 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Astros and the Athletics, level on 39-43, with the Orioles (38-44) 2 games back.
On this date in 2021, 4 Cubs pitchers combined for a no-hitter.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 17 HR / 18 SB — 13 homers and 12 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/36.
Bobby Witt Jr. sits at 28 stolen bases — two from the 30 mark.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 29 home runs through 80 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (39). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48 (95% CI 47-50); 39.7% reached 50 (28.1-52.5% at 95% confidence), from 58 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-12 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 59, it would rank No. 12 among all seasons since 1901 — only 11 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 198 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Pete Alonso's 2019 (74% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, speed, average; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.340AVG
32 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
29HR
59 projected HR · 10 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
107H
214 projected H · 24 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
31SB
62 projected SB · 34 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
232B
47 projected 2B · 10 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
93B
18 projected 3B · 9 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.322· 25 HR · 56 RBI
4 / 2 / 6 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
17/18HR/SB
34/36 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 3 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Dodgers
52W
104 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+144
+288 projected run differential