Sonny Gray carried a NO-HITTER into the 8th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-06-28 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 121 times, projecting to 233. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (30) — one every 10.0 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
Milestones reached last night: Kyle Schwarber reached 30 HR.
Lines of the night: Raynel Delgado hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; Kyle Backhus earned his first career win; Samy Natera Jr. earned his first career save ▶︎ watch.
Found velocity: Michael King's sinker averaged 94.4 mph — his hardest start of the season, 1.7 mph over his 14-start baseline.
History movers: Dodgers — Team Wins: pace 104, record 116 (1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners).
Sweep watch: the Rangers swept the Blue Jays (4 games) — their 2nd sweep in 31 days. 2 other clubs were swept the same night.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 30 home runs through 84 team games, a 58-homer pace — 9 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (39 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Astros (42-44), with the Athletics (40-44) 1 1/2 games back.
On this date in 2023, Domingo German of the Yankees threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 17 HR / 20 SB — 13 homers and 10 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 33/39.
Bobby Witt Jr. sits at 28 stolen bases — two from the 30 mark.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 30 home runs through 84 team games, 9 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (39). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48 (95% CI 46-49); 34.3% reached 50 (24.1-46.3% at 95% confidence), from 67 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-14 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 58, it would rank No. 14 among all seasons since 1901 — only 13 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 198 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Pete Alonso's 2019 (75% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, average, speed; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.336AVG
32 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
30HR
58 projected HR · 9 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
109H
210 projected H · 27 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
32SB
61 projected SB · 36 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
242B
47 projected 2B · 10 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
103B
20 projected 3B · 8 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.311· 25 HR · 56 RBI
7 / 2 / 10 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
17/20HR/SB
33/39 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 1 other in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Dodgers
54W
104 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+152
+293 projected run differential