Historic Chases · 2026-07-06

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Baseball last night

History movers: Dodgers (Team Wins) up 85 → 88.

The so-what: through 91 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 11 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (41 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .346 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .471 clip the rest of the way (131-for-278). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .467; an 0-for-4 raises it to .478.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 19 HR / 23 SB — 11 homers short and 7 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/41.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 30 home runs through 91 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (40). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 24.8% reached 50 and 3.8% reached 60 (n=105).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The MIA single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Otto Lopez projects to 219 and projects to finish 2 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (76% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, runs; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400