Historic Chases · 2026-07-08

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-08

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 19 in 89 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.0% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 43 in 391 this season). 2 of 331 rate comparisons across 64 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 32 home runs through 93 team games, a 56-homer pace — 8 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (40 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

01

On this date in 2023, 3 Tigers pitchers combined for a no-hitter.

02

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) sits at 21 HR / 23 SB — 9 homers and 7 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 37/40.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 93 team games, 8 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (40). Comparable chases finished with a median of 47 (95% CI 45-48); 28.2% reached 50 (19.8-38.6% at 95% confidence), from 85 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play
If the pace holds

A projected top-22 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 56, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Marlins' single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Otto Lopez projects to 219 and would finish 2 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Pete Alonso's 2019 (74% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, runs, average; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Closest to .400
Otto Lopez headshot
Otto Lopez MIA
.345AVG
34 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
Kyle Schwarber headshot
Kyle Schwarber PHI
32HR
56 projected HR · 8 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
Otto Lopez headshot
Otto Lopez MIA
126H
219 projected H · 24 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
Nasim Nuñez headshot
Nasim Nuñez WSH
33SB
57 projected SB · 42 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
Otto Lopez headshot
Otto Lopez MIA
262B
45 projected 2B · 12 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
Corbin Carroll headshot
Corbin Carroll AZ
103B
18 projected 3B · 10 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
Jacob Misiorowski headshot
Jacob Misiorowski MIL
167K
294 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
EXTREME
ERA Leader
Jacob Misiorowski headshot
Jacob Misiorowski MIL
1.62ERA
111.0 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
Yordan Alvarez headshot
Yordan Alvarez HOU
.310· 29 HR · 67 RBI
2 / 1 / 1 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
Pete Crow-Armstrong headshot
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC
21/23HR/SB
37/40 projected HR/SB · team-game pace
ON PACE
Saves Leader
Cade SmithCLE
27SV
47 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
DodgersLAD
61W
105 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
DodgersLAD
+164
+283 projected run differential