History movers: Corbin Carroll (Triples) down 65 → 60; Rafael Devers (Doubles) up 59 → 63.
Milestones reached last night: Brandon Marsh reached 100 hits.
The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 1-for-3 last night and held steady at 0 points to .345. The gap to .400 is now .055.
The so-what: through 94 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 10 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (42 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .345 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .477 clip the rest of the way (127-for-266). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .473; an 0-for-4 raises it to .485.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 23 SB — 9 homers short and 7 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 37/40.
Historical intelligence
Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 94 team games, 8 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (40). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 27.9% reached 50 and 3.5% reached 60 (n=86).
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playIf Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 55, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021The MIA single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Otto Lopez projects to 219 and projects to finish 2 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (75% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, runs; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021
