Historic Chases · 2026-07-09

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-09

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 19 in 90 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.0% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 43 in 391 this season). 2 of 331 rate comparisons across 64 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Sweep watch: the Marlins swept the Mariners (3 games) — their 4th sweep in 31 days. Only 11.2% of team-seasons since 1897 have swept 4 clubs inside 30 days — 340 of 3043. 2 other clubs were swept the same night.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 32 home runs through 94 team games, a 55-homer pace — 8 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (40 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

On this date in 1976, Larry Dierker of the Astros threw a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) sits at 21 HR / 23 SB — 9 homers and 7 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 37/40.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 94 team games, 8 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (40). Comparable chases finished with a median of 47 (95% CI 45-48); 28.2% reached 50 (19.8-38.6% at 95% confidence), from 85 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-24 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 146, it would rank No. 24 among all seasons since 1901 — only 23 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Marlins' single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Otto Lopez projects to 219 and would finish 2 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (75% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, runs; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400