No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Alec Gamboa earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch; Tyler Schweitzer earned his FIRST career win ▶︎ watch.
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 145 times, projecting to 240. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (32) — one every 11.1 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The AL Central is a coin flip: Sox (51-45) lead Guardians by 0.5. The WSH single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 46 and projects to tie it.
History movers: Yordan Alvarez (Triple Crown (AL)) up 80 → 95; Athletics (Run Differential) up 63 → 72; Red Sox (Win Streak) up 68 → 76.
Lines of the night: Craig Yoho earned his FIRST career win; Lucas Spence made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-3 ▶︎ watch; Cam Sanders earned his FIRST career win ▶︎ watch; Spencer Steer hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch; Tommy White made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-4 ▶︎ watch.
Milestones reached last night: Junior Caminero reached 100 hits; Matt Olson reached 100 hits; Andy Pages reached 100 hits.
The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 2-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 2 points to .336. The gap to .400 is now .064.
The so-what: through 98 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 12 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (44 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .336 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .498 clip the rest of the way (125-for-251). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .494; an 0-for-4 raises it to .506.
Tightest race: the AL Central — Sox (51-45) lead Guardians (51-46) by 0.5.
Year-over-year: the Sox are 51-45 — 19 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (32-65).
From nowhere: Junior Caminero is now 4th in MLB in home runs — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.
From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 5th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 25 SB — 9 homers short and 5 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/42.
Historical intelligence
Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 98 team games, 11 behind Mark McGwire's 1998 pace at the same checkpoint (43). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44; 22.1% reached 50 and 1.6% reached 60 (n=122).
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playIf James Wood finishes at the current projection of 150, it would rank No. 18 among all seasons since 1901 — only 17 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021The WSH single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 46 and projects to tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021MLB teams are averaging 8.37 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021
