Historic Chases · 2026-07-19

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-19

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Hunter Goodman hit 3 home runs — happens roughly a dozen times a season ▶︎ watch; The San Diego Padres hung 19 runs on the Kansas City Royals (19-2) — a 17-run margin.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 147 times, projecting to 238. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (33) — one every 10.9 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (50-49) lead Mariners by 0.5. The COL single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Larry Walker in 1997. Hunter Goodman projects to 48 and projects to finish 1 short.

History movers: Corbin Carroll (Triples) down 60 → 55; Red Sox (Win Streak) up 80 → 84; Nasim Nuñez (Stolen Bases) up 47 → 51.

Lines of the night: Drake Baldwin had a perfect day: 5-for-5 — a perfect 5-for-5 happens maybe 15 times a season ▶︎ watch; Victor Mesa Jr. hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch; Geraldo Perdomo hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch; Grant Wolfram earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch; Arizona Diamondbacks came back from 7 runs down to win — comebacks from 7+ down happen a few times a season.

Milestones reached last night: Shohei Ohtani reached 100 hits; Ceddanne Rafaela reached 100 hits; Hunter Goodman reached 30 HR; Sal Stewart reached 20 HR.

The so-what: through 100 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 12 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (45 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .335 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .506 clip the rest of the way (122-for-241). That is .004 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .502; an 0-for-4 raises it to .515.

The hot hand: Ben Rice brings a 11-game hitting streak into tonight. Streaks get interesting at 20 and historic at 30. Also alive: Jordan Walker (10).

Tightest race: the AL West — Rangers (50-49) lead Mariners (50-50) by 0.5.

Year-over-year: the Sox are 52-46 — 18 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (34-65).

Behind the plate: Alex Tosi called the best zone last night (97.7% on 128 calls); Charlie Ramos the roughest (90.2%). Worst call: a strike 17.6" off the zone.

From nowhere: Junior Caminero is now 5th in MLB in home runs — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 25 SB — 9 homers short and 5 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/41.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 33 home runs through 100 team games, 10 behind Mark McGwire's 1998 pace at the same checkpoint (43). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 26.9% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-22 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 147, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The COL single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Larry Walker in 1997. Hunter Goodman projects to 48 and projects to finish 1 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400