Historic Chases · 2026-07-23

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-23

Gavin Williams threw an IMMACULATE INNING (inning 4: 3 K on 9 pitches) — an immaculate inning happens once or twice a season ▶︎ watch.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 154 times, projecting to 242. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (51-51) lead Mariners by 0.5. The TB single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 46 and projects to tie it.

History movers: Corbin Carroll — Triples: 12 now, pace 19, record 36 (Chief Wilson).

Lines of the night: Jack Anderson earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch.

The so-what: through 104 team games, Yordan Alvarez sits 13 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (47 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .332 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .522 clip the rest of the way (118-for-226). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .518; an 0-for-4 raises it to .532.

Tightest race: the AL West — Rangers (51-51) lead Mariners (51-52) by 0.5.

Year-over-year: the Sox are 54-47 — 17 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (37-66).

Rookie watch: Kazuma Okamoto has 22 HR and 62 RBI in 100 games — the top rookie power line in baseball.

Clean gloves: the STL have played 7 straight errorless games.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has 21 home runs — and none in 12 games. The longest quiet stretch of his season is costing him the pace.

From nowhere: Junior Caminero is now 5th in MLB in home runs — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 25 SB — 9 homers short and 5 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 33/40.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 34 home runs through 104 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (45). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 23.7% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-22 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 148, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The TB single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 46 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400