Historic Chases · 2026-07-25

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-25

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Javier Assad earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch; Shawn Ross made his MLB DEBUT.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 155 times, projecting to 239. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.5 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL Central is a coin flip: Sox (54-49) lead Guardians by 1.5. The TB single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 45 and projects to finish 1 short.

History movers: Marlins — Losing Streak: 11 now, record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies) · CJ Abrams, after homering — RBI: 79 now, pace 122, record 191 (Hack Wilson).

Lines of the night: James Triantos made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-1 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 1-for-2 last night and pushed his average up 1 point to .331. The gap to .400 is now .069.

The so-what: through 106 team games, Yordan Alvarez sits 14 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (48 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .331 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .528 clip the rest of the way (115-for-218). That is .002 easier than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .523; an 0-for-4 raises it to .537.

The hot hand: Jake McCarthy brings a 11-game hitting streak into tonight. Streaks get interesting at 20 and historic at 30.

Tightest race: the AL Central — Sox (54-49) lead Guardians (54-52) by 1.5.

Year-over-year: the Braves are 61-43 — 17 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (44-58).

Rookie watch: Kazuma Okamoto has 23 HR and 65 RBI in 102 games — the top rookie power line in baseball.

Streak ladder: the Marlins have lost 11 straight — 10 shy of the 2024 White Sox (AL record) (21); 12 shy of the 1961 Phillies (modern record) (23).

Clean gloves: the STL have played 9 straight errorless games.

Jordan Walker has 22 home runs — and none in 13 games. The longest quiet stretch of his season is costing him the pace.

Zach Neto has 19 home runs — and none in 12 games. The longest quiet stretch of his season is costing him the pace.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 23 HR / 26 SB — 7 homers short and 4 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 36/40.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 34 home runs through 106 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (45). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 23.7% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The TB single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 45 and projects to finish 1 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Yordan Alvarez is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least .320 AVG, 50 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 12 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Luis Gonzalez (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400