Kaelen Culpepper hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; Ryan Waldschmidt ended it with a walk-off — his first career walk-off hit ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-08-07
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Collapse watch in the NL West: the Dodgers' lead over the D-backs was 11.5 games 18 days ago — it's 7.5 now. The Dodgers have gone 6-9 while the D-backs went 11-6.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 30/30 pace — 26 HR and 30 SB, projecting to 36/42. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.
History movers: Red Sox — Win Streak: 9 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017) · Athletics — Losing Streak: 9 now, modern record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies, 1961).
Lines of the night: Ryan McMahon ended it with a walk-off ▶︎ watch; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) stole his 30th base — that half of a 30/30 season is done, and he is four homers away; Héctor Rodríguez notched his first career hit; Christian Franklin notched his first career hit; Brett Bateman made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-2 ▶︎ watch.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.4% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 62 in 501 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 22 in 114 this season; Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.7% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 63 in 498 this season). 3 of 300 rate comparisons across 59 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.
Start streaks: Drew Rasmussen (TB) has struck out 8 or more AND allowed no earned run in each of his last three starts (9, 10, 8 K; 20 scoreless innings).
Also last night: Stuff watch: Ben Brown's knuckle-curve has run 2.2 mph under his 13-start baseline for 3 straight starts (84.94 vs 87.09); Stuff watch: Dylan Cease's four-seamer has run 1.8 mph under his 15-start baseline for 3 straight starts (95.86 vs 97.62); Luis Torrens recorded his first stolen base of the season — in his game No. 69.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons
Yordan Alvarez has 35 home runs through 117 team games, 15 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (50). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 43-46); 13% reached 50 (8.5-19.4% at 95% confidence), from 146 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA franchise record is under pressure
The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 46 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Yordan Alvarez resemble?
The completed season closest to Yordan Alvarez's projected shape is Adrian Beltre's 2004 (80% similarity). The match is strongest in power, run production, runs; the largest difference is speed. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025