Overnight: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) added 1 strikeout. Schwarber has struck out 177 times, projecting to 233. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (37) — one every 11.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
Historic Chases · 2026-08-13
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
The box scores did the talking last night: Cade Cavalli carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch; Caleb Durbin hit a grand slam — his first ▶︎ watch.
The Rays have won 9 straight, and are 9-1 in their last 10. Collapse watch in the NL West: the Dodgers' lead over the Padres was 14.0 games 18 days ago — it's 8.0 now. The Dodgers have gone 6-10 while the Padres went 12-4.
The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is holding an AL Triple Crown — he leads the AL in average (.322), home runs (35) and RBI (87). Across both leagues he is 2nd in MLB in home runs and 3rd in MLB in RBI. The three are not the whole of it: among the 67 qualified AL hitters he also has the highest on-base percentage (.436) and slugging percentage (.621), and the most hits (140), runs (80) and total bases (270) — 5 of the 9 other categories this site checks. OPS is on-base plus slugging, so leading both puts his 1.057 on top as well rather than making it a category of its own. No one has won a Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012, and only 17 have ever been won. Hold all three to the end and it is one of the rarest seasons in the sport.
Also last night: Logan Gilbert (SEA) went 6.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Kyle Schwarber hit 2 home runs — and led off the game with a home run ▶︎ watch; The Pittsburgh Pirates beat the Miami Marlins 13-1.
Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), an ERA of 1.76, tied for 9th among the 4,338 qualified seasons since 1969 with Tom Seaver's 1.76 in 1971 and 13.80 strikeouts per nine innings, 2nd among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file and behind only Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 13.09 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th. The earned run average rank is given from 1969 on because the lowest earned run averages were thrown before the mound was lowered in 1969, and a rank across those eras is not a comparison the numbers support.
Went deep more than once: Rafael Flores Jr. hit 2 home runs, driving in 6 — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch.
Lines of the night: Jake Bauers' tiebreaking single in the 9th put the Brewers ahead for good in a 5-4 win over the Dodgers ▶︎ watch; Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) went the distance — a complete game (3 hits, 1 run, 10 K) ▶︎ watch; Payton Tolle allowed two hits over 8.0 scoreless innings (4 K) ▶︎ watch; Walbert Ureña allowed two hits over 6.0 scoreless innings (5 K) ▶︎ watch; Keider Montero (DET) went 6.1 scoreless ▶︎ watch.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.3% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 65 in 527 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 23 in 119 this season; Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.5% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 65 in 521 this season). 3 of 322 rate comparisons across 62 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The hot hand: Jac Caglianone brings a 11-game hitting streak into tonight. The benchmarks ahead: 20 gets noticed, 30 gets a nightly countdown.
One start away: Dylan Cease needs 9 strikeouts for 200.
Tightest race: the AL West — Astros (62-60) lead Rangers (60-62) by 2.
Wild-card watch: the AL's last wild-card spot belongs to a losing record — the Tigers (60-61) hold it, with the Rangers (60-62) half a game back.
Year-over-year: the Braves are 73-48 — 21 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (52-68).
Rookie watch: Sal Stewart (CIN) has 89 RBI — second in the major leagues (from a board of 54).
Tonight's matchup: Yordan Alvarez came into this season 3-for-14 lifetime against George Kirby — but 6 strikeouts.
The Padres have won 5 straight, and are 7-3 in their last 10.
The Pirates avoided a three-game sweep.
The Mariners avoided a three-game sweep.
The Tigers moved into an AL wild-card spot. The Rangers fell out of an AL wild-card spot, half a game back.
Call-ups: Charlie Barnes (Dodgers), Jesse Scholtens (Rays), Kameron Misner (Phillies), Greg Weissert (Red Sox), Isaac Mattson (Pirates), Trei Cruz (Tigers), Lazaro Estrada (Blue Jays), Turner Hill (Giants) and Jack Brannigan (Pirates).
The Twins activated Byron Buxton off the injured list.
The Giants acquired Shay Whitcomb from the Astros.
The Brewers scored three in the 9th to take a game they had been losing.
On this date in 1969, Jim Palmer of the Orioles threw a no-hitter.
Career milestone watch: Freddie Freeman (LAD) sits at 382 career home runs — 18 from 400; Willson Contreras (BOS) sits at 196 career home runs — 4 from 200.
Clean gloves: the Twins have played 6 straight errorless games. The Braves have 5.
The power outage is plural: Freddie Freeman (15 HR) hasn't homered in 22 games; Bryan Reynolds (15 HR) hasn't homered in 21 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.
Surging: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) has pushed his home run pace from 14 to 21 and his RBI pace from 69 to 84 in three weeks — 7 and 20 in 20 games where his own rate predicted 1.9 and 8.9. One of 71 pace comparisons run tonight.
From nowhere: Chandler Simpson (TB) is now 5th of 10 on MLB's batting-average board — he wasn't on it a month ago, when it ran 10 deep.
Luck watch: José Ramírez (CLE) is hitting .233 while his batted-ball quality says .282. Statcast's verdict: the hits are coming.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) sits at 27 HR / 30 SB — 3 homers short of a 30/30 season, with the steals already banked, projecting to 36/40.
Sonny Gray (BOS) sits at 14 wins — one from the 15 mark.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 37 home runs through 123 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (54). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 43-45); 9.6% reached 50 (5.8-15.5% at 95% confidence), from 146 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA franchise record is under pressure
The Astros' single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 46 and would finish 1 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2025. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Harmon Killebrew's 1963 (79% similarity). The match is strongest in run production, runs, speed; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025