Historic Chases · 2026-09-18

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-18

CJ Abrams (WSH) stole his 30th base to complete a 30/30 season — 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases.

The AL West is a coin flip: Astros (77-77) and Rangers (77-77) are even in the standings — zero games back.

CJ Abrams' 30/30 season is one of fewer than fifty ever.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.15 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 151 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.6% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 78 in 675 this season); Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 113 in 502 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 495 this season). 4 of 796 rate comparisons across 154 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Also last night: Chad Patrick has not allowed a run in his last 12 innings; Mookie Betts hit 2 home runs — and led off the game with a home run.

Lines of the night: Two go-ahead plays: Spencer Horwitz's tiebreaking single in the 7th put the Pirates ahead for good in a 8-5 win over the Royals ▶︎ watch; Sal Frelick's tiebreaking single in the 10th put the Brewers ahead for good in a 6-5 win over the Orioles ▶︎ watch. Three starts of note: Connor Prielipp allowed two hits over 7.0 scoreless innings (8 K) ▶︎ watch; Joey Cantillo went 6.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Cade Cavalli (WSH) went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch. Tyler Glasnow struck out 10 over 6.0 IP.

For the second straight night: Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 45, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH)

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 3 stolen bases for a 40/40 season; he has 44 home runs and 37 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Cincinnati Reds.

Reid Detmers (LAA) is the probable starter and needs 1 strikeout to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: Minnesota Twins.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 154 team games, 23 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (68). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-46); 2.5% reached 50 (0.9-7.2% at 95% confidence), from 119 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 43 and would finish 3 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (88% similarity). The match is strongest in average, speed, run production; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400