88% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Willson Contreras is 2 from 200 career home runs
He sits at 198 — one of the counting milestones the sport stops for.
This has been his headline for 24 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 198 career home runs, 2 from 200 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- OPS .900 — 5th of 50 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
A milestone is arithmetic on a career, not a statement about this season. Reaching it depends on playing time between now and then, which nothing here predicts.
What to watch next
Next up: at Baltimore Orioles.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 198 career home runs, 2 from 200 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- OPS .900 — 5th of 50 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Willson Contreras sits 5th in OPS among 50 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board.
The evidence
What to watch next
at Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 7:15 p.m. ET
Facing Brandon Young
Willson Contreras faces a right-hander in Brandon Young. He is hitting .276 with 19 home runs in 323 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 323 | .276 | 19 | 58 | .884 |
| vs LHP | 111 | .270 | 7 | 21 | .945 |
| Home | 214 | .318 | 14 | 37 | 1.003 |
| Away | 220 | .232 | 12 | 42 | .800 |
| Day | 160 | .269 | 9 | 29 | .855 |
| Night | 274 | .277 | 17 | 50 | .926 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
125G
434AB
119H
.274AVG
26HR
79RBI
3SB
212B
33B
.900OPS
Chasing .400
.274Current AVG
92Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
95-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.167Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (84-for-72)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .274 | .274 | .819 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .274 | .274 | 1.028 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .274 | .274 | 1.167 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .274 | .274 | 1.208 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .274 | .274 | 1.625 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 26 | 30 | 24 in 23 g · 1 per 3.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 26 | 30 | 34 in 23 g · 1 per 2.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 26 | 30 | 36 in 23 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 26 | 30 | 44 in 23 g · 1 per 1.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 26 | 30 | 47 in 23 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 119 | 139 | 81 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 119 | 139 | 106 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 119 | 139 | 131 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 119 | 139 | 143 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 21 | 24 | 29 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 21 | 24 | 39 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 21 | 24 | 46 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 3 | 3 | 17 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 3 | 3 | 22 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 3 | 3 | 33 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 79 | 92 | 46 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 79 | 92 | 71 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 79 | 92 | 96 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 79 | 92 | 112 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 50.290 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 46.040 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 29.3, against a straight team-game pace of 30. Exact beta-binomial over 86 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1063); median finish 29. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | San Francisco Giants | W 3-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .285 |
| 2026-08-21 | San Francisco Giants | W 6-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .285 |
| 2026-08-19 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 6-7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .284 |
| 2026-08-18 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 9-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .283 |
| 2026-08-17 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 11-1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .281 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 4-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .278 |
| 2026-08-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 4-8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .281 |
| 2026-08-13 | Toronto Blue Jays | W 7-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .280 |
| 2026-08-12 | Toronto Blue Jays | L 4-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .280 |
| 2026-08-11 | Toronto Blue Jays | L 3-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .280 |
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001