95% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Pete Alonso is 4 from 300 career home runs
He sits at 296 — one of the counting milestones the sport stops for.
The case in 30 seconds
- 296 career home runs, 4 from 300 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 92 6th in RBI at 92, 8th in home runs at 32, 8th in total bases at 261 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 94.2 mph average exit velocity 94.2 mph over 383 batted-ball events — 5th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- Average exit velocity94.2mph
- Hard-hit rate56.9%
- Barrel rate13.6%
- Max exit velocity114.6mph
This season only, 383 batted-ball events. Ranked 5th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
A milestone is arithmetic on a career, not a statement about this season. Reaching it depends on playing time between now and then, which nothing here predicts.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Boston Red Sox.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- 296 career home runs, 4 from 300 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 6th in RBI at 92, 8th in home runs at 32, 8th in total bases at 261 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- average exit velocity 94.2 mph over 383 batted-ball events — 5th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Pete Alonso is top-10 in the majors in RBI, home runs and total bases; Pete Alonso is on the season's hardest-contact board.
The evidence
What changed last night
1 RBI
L 2-4 vs Colorado Rockies · 2026-09-01
carries a .269 average into today
What to watch next
vs Boston Red Sox
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 7:15 p.m. ET
Facing Jake Bennett
Pete Alonso faces a left-hander in Jake Bennett. He is hitting .258 with 8 home runs in 163 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 362 | .273 | 24 | 70 | .893 |
| vs LHP | 163 | .258 | 8 | 22 | .778 |
| Home | 250 | .256 | 16 | 45 | .821 |
| Away | 275 | .280 | 16 | 47 | .891 |
| Day | 207 | .266 | 10 | 35 | .837 |
| Night | 318 | .270 | 22 | 57 | .871 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
140G
525AB
141H
.269AVG
32HR
92RBI
5SB
242B
03B
.858OPS
Chasing .400
.269Current AVG
115Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
109-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.195Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (104-for-87)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .269 | .269 | .851 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .269 | .269 | 1.057 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .269 | .269 | 1.195 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .269 | .269 | 1.241 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .269 | .269 | 1.667 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 32 | 37 | 18 in 23 g · 1 per 4.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 32 | 37 | 28 in 23 g · 1 per 3.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 32 | 37 | 30 in 23 g · 1 per 2.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 32 | 37 | 38 in 23 g · 1 per 2.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 32 | 37 | 41 in 23 g · 1 per 2.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 141 | 164 | 59 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 141 | 164 | 84 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 141 | 164 | 109 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 141 | 164 | 121 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 5 | 6 | 45 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 5 | 6 | 75 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 5 | 6 | 95 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 5 | 6 | 125 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 24 | 28 | 26 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 24 | 28 | 36 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 24 | 28 | 43 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 92 | 107 | 33 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 92 | 107 | 58 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 92 | 107 | 83 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 92 | 107 | 99 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
3%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 52.720 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 48.530 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 36.0, against a straight team-game pace of 37. Exact beta-binomial over 100 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
6.8%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=512); median finish 35. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Colorado Rockies | L 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .269 |
| 2026-08-31 | Colorado Rockies | W 2-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .269 |
| 2026-08-30 | Athletics | W 8-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .270 |
| 2026-08-29 | Athletics | W 5-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .269 |
| 2026-08-28 | Athletics | W 4-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .272 |
| 2026-08-27 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 5-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .274 |
| 2026-08-26 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 8-7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .276 |
| 2026-08-25 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 13-1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .276 |
| 2026-08-23 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 1-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .270 |
| 2026-08-22 | Tampa Bay Rays | W 3-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .273 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001