Why he matters right now
Dylan Cease is 25 from 100 career wins
He sits at 75 — one of the counting milestones the sport stops for.
The story changed tonight — this page led with a different case yesterday.
The case in 30 seconds
- 75 career wins, 25 from 100 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 221 2nd in strikeouts at 221, 4th in ERA at 2.25, 4th in strikeout-minus-walk rate at 25.1% on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- ERA 2.25 — 4th of 22 qualified pitchers on this site's tracked board snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
His four-seamer has averaged 95.7 mph over his last 3 starts against a 97.6 mph baseline. That is a measured change in the pitch, not a diagnosis of the pitcher. It does not undo the case above; it is the part of the record that argues the other way.
What to watch next
Next up: at Cleveland Guardians. 29 more to reach 250 SO.
Every claim above, with its source (4)
- 75 career wins, 25 from 100 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 2nd in strikeouts at 221, 4th in ERA at 2.25, 4th in strikeout-minus-walk rate at 25.1% on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- ERA 2.25 — 4th of 22 qualified pitchers on this site's tracked board snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- 95.7 vs 97.6 ± 0.48 mph baseline over 15 starts (z = -3.86) stuff-watch gates, calibrated against the season's own variance
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Dylan Cease is top-10 in the majors in strikeouts, ERA and strikeout-minus-walk rate (and 1 other board); Dylan Cease sits 4th in ERA among 22 qualified pitchers on this site's tracked board; Dylan Cease's four-seamer has been sitting below his own baseline.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 63+1 Strikeouts Significant · MILESTONE No. 2 of 3strikeouts chases 221 record 383 — Nolan Ryan, 1973 258projected, against 300
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What changed last night
What to watch next
Situational splits
| Split | IP | ERA | SO | WHIP | AVG against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 64.2 | — | 88 | 1.07 | .194 |
| vs LHP | 91.2 | — | 133 | 1.01 | .164 |
| Home | 80.1 | 2.91 | 120 | 1.15 | .197 |
| Away | 76.0 | 1.54 | 101 | 0.92 | .153 |
| Day | 68.0 | 2.12 | 102 | 0.97 | .148 |
| Night | 88.1 | 2.34 | 119 | 1.09 | .197 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
Strikeout chase
| Chase | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200 K | 221 | 258 | done | ACHIEVED |
| 250 K | 221 | 258 | 29 K · 6.7 per outing over 4.3 left | ON PACE |
| 300 K | 221 | 258 | 79 K · 18.4 per outing over 4.3 left | EXTREME |
| 350 K | 221 | 258 | 129 K · 30.0 per outing over 4.3 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 383 K | 221 | 258 | 162 K · 37.7 per outing over 4.3 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
ERA & WHIP finish lines
| Finish | Current | Required rest-of-season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-2.00 ERA | 2.25 | 0.52 over about 26 innings | EXTREME |
| Sub-1.75 ERA | 2.25 | -1.24 over about 26 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.50 ERA | 2.25 | -3.00 over about 26 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.00 WHIP | 1.04 | 0.78 | NEAR PACE |
| Sub-0.90 WHIP | 1.04 | 0.08 | EXTREME |
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Cleveland Guardians | L 1-6 | 6.0 | 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | New York Yankees | W 4-3 | 6.2 | 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | New York Yankees | L 3-4 | 6.1 | 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | Boston Red Sox | W 5-3 | 5.0 | 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chicago Cubs | L 2-3 | 7.0 | 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 3-1 | 6.0 | 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | Boston Red Sox | W 6-0 | 9.0 | 12 |
| 2026-07-08 | San Francisco Giants | W 10-0 | 3.0 | 4 |
Recent highlights
Chase history
Stuff watch
Four-seamer velocity, start by start
Every start's average against his own trailing baseline of 97.6 ± 0.48 mph. Ringed dots sit more than one standard deviation under the baseline; last start 95.71 mph (2026-08-22).
- velocity · FF: 95.71 vs 97.57 ± 0.48 (z -3.86, 3 straight)
- velocity · SL: 88.04 vs 89.18 ± 0.33 (z -3.4, 3 straight)