93% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Brandon Lowe is 8 from 200 career home runs
He sits at 192 — one of the counting milestones the sport stops for.
This has been his headline for 78 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 192 career home runs, 8 from 200 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 152 152 hits, past his previous best of 132 in 2021 year-by-year record, 6 prior seasons since 2019 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 35 10th in home runs at 35 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
The honest caveat
A milestone is arithmetic on a career, not a statement about this season. Reaching it depends on playing time between now and then, which nothing here predicts.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- 192 career home runs, 8 from 200 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 152 hits, past his previous best of 132 in 2021 year-by-year record, 6 prior seasons since 2019 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 10th in home runs at 35 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Brandon Lowe has already passed his career best in hits; Brandon Lowe is top-10 in the majors in home runs.
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 391 | .279 | 27 | 77 | .910 |
| vs LHP | 193 | .223 | 8 | 19 | .648 |
| Home | 308 | .266 | 20 | 56 | .848 |
| Away | 276 | .254 | 15 | 40 | .797 |
| Day | 235 | .264 | 15 | 39 | .850 |
| Night | 349 | .258 | 20 | 57 | .806 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
150G
584AB
152H
.260AVG
35HR
96RBI
2SB
292B
13B
.824OPS
Chasing .400
.260Current AVG
137Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
122-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (82-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .260 | .260 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .260 | .260 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .260 | .260 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .260 | .260 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .260 | .260 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 35 | 35 | 15 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 35 | 35 | 25 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 35 | 35 | 27 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 35 | 35 | 35 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 35 | 35 | 38 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 152 | 152 | 48 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 152 | 152 | 73 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 152 | 152 | 98 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 152 | 152 | 110 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 2 | 2 | 48 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 2 | 2 | 78 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 2 | 2 | 98 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 2 | 2 | 128 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 29 | 29 | 21 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 29 | 29 | 31 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 29 | 29 | 38 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 96 | 96 | 29 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 96 | 96 | 54 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 96 | 96 | 79 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 96 | 96 | 95 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 53.350 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 49.280 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 35.0, against a straight team-game pace of 35. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.2%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=493); median finish 35. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 2-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .262 |
| 2026-09-23 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 1-5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .262 |
| 2026-09-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 2-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .260 |
| 2026-09-20 | Kansas City Royals | W 4-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .262 |
| 2026-08-21 | Los Angeles Dodgers | L 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .254 |
| 2026-08-19 | Detroit Tigers | W 4-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .253 |
| 2026-08-18 | Detroit Tigers | W 4-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .252 |
| 2026-08-17 | Detroit Tigers | L 5-8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .254 |
| 2026-08-16 | Boston Red Sox | W 8-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .252 |
| 2026-08-15 | Boston Red Sox | L 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .250 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001