90% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Elly De La Cruz is on the season's hardest-contact board
He averages 94.0 mph off the bat over 333 batted balls, with 51.1% hit hard — contact quality that shows up whether or not the results have caught up yet.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: his headline number went from 93.9 mph to 94.0 mph since August 31.
The case in 30 seconds
- 94.0 mph average exit velocity 94.0 mph over 333 batted-ball events — 7th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- .273 .829 OPS, 21 home runs, 60 RBI and 24 stolen bases over 121 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- Average exit velocity94.0mph
- Hard-hit rate51.1%
- Barrel rate13.8%
- Max exit velocity116.3mph
This season only, 333 batted-ball events. Ranked 7th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 541 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- average exit velocity 94.0 mph over 333 batted-ball events — 7th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- .829 OPS, 21 home runs, 60 RBI and 24 stolen bases over 121 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
2-for-4
W 4-3 vs San Diego Padres · 2026-09-01
carries a .273 average into today
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 345 | .249 | 13 | 34 | .753 |
| vs LHP | 132 | .333 | 8 | 26 | 1.025 |
| Home | 232 | .289 | 11 | 28 | .884 |
| Away | 245 | .257 | 10 | 32 | .775 |
| Day | 201 | .259 | 6 | 15 | .720 |
| Night | 276 | .283 | 15 | 45 | .907 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
121G
477AB
130H
.273AVG
21HR
60RBI
24SB
242B
53B
.829OPS
Chasing .400
.273Current AVG
102Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
101-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.177Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (93-for-79)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .273 | .273 | .823 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .273 | .273 | 1.038 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .273 | .273 | 1.177 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .273 | .273 | 1.215 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .273 | .273 | 1.646 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 21 | 24 | 29 in 23 g · 1 per 2.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 21 | 24 | 39 in 23 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 21 | 24 | 41 in 23 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 21 | 24 | 49 in 23 g · 1 per 1.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 21 | 24 | 52 in 23 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 130 | 152 | 70 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 130 | 152 | 95 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 130 | 152 | 120 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 130 | 152 | 132 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 24 | 28 | 26 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 24 | 28 | 56 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 24 | 28 | 76 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 24 | 28 | 106 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 24 | 28 | 26 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 24 | 28 | 36 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 24 | 28 | 43 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 5 | 6 | 15 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 5 | 6 | 20 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 5 | 6 | 31 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 60 | 70 | 65 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 60 | 70 | 90 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 60 | 70 | 115 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 60 | 70 | 131 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 38.820 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 37.080 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 23.7, against a straight team-game pace of 24. Exact beta-binomial over 90 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1792); median finish 23. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | San Diego Padres | W 4-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .273 |
| 2026-08-31 | San Diego Padres | L 0-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .271 |
| 2026-08-30 | Chicago Cubs | W 7-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .271 |
| 2026-08-29 | Chicago Cubs | L 5-17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .269 |
| 2026-08-28 | Chicago Cubs | W 10-8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .268 |
| 2026-08-26 | San Francisco Giants | W 10-9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .265 |
| 2026-08-25 | San Francisco Giants | L 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .262 |
| 2026-08-24 | San Francisco Giants | L 0-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .262 |
| 2026-08-23 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .262 |
| 2026-08-22 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 11-5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .263 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001