86% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Jackson Chourio has already passed his career best in home runs
He has 25; his previous best was 21, in 2024. That is measured over the two seasons of at least 200 at-bats he has played. He is also past his best in runs.
This has been his headline for 30 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 25 25 home runs, past his previous best of 21 in 2024; 96 runs, past his previous best of 88 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- .291 10th in batting average at .291 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
The honest caveat
A career-best total is measured against his own record and nobody else's, and for most players that record is short. Beating it says this year is his best; it says nothing about where the season sits in the league, and a young player passing an early-career mark is closer to normal than to remarkable.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 25 home runs, past his previous best of 21 in 2024; 96 runs, past his previous best of 88 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 10th in batting average at .291 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Jackson Chourio is top-10 in the majors in batting average.
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 369 | .274 | 16 | 54 | .778 |
| vs LHP | 153 | .333 | 9 | 21 | .979 |
| Home | 246 | .313 | 15 | 45 | .933 |
| Away | 276 | .272 | 10 | 30 | .749 |
| Day | 173 | .243 | 5 | 20 | .700 |
| Night | 349 | .315 | 20 | 55 | .906 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
127G
522AB
152H
.291AVG
25HR
75RBI
23SB
272B
03B
.838OPS
Chasing .400
.291Current AVG
95Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
97-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (57-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .291 | .291 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .291 | .291 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .291 | .291 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .291 | .291 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .291 | .291 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 25 | 25 | 25 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 25 | 25 | 35 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 25 | 25 | 37 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 25 | 25 | 45 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 25 | 25 | 48 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 152 | 152 | 48 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 152 | 152 | 73 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 152 | 152 | 98 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 152 | 152 | 110 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 23 | 23 | 27 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 23 | 23 | 57 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 23 | 23 | 77 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 23 | 23 | 107 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 27 | 27 | 23 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 27 | 27 | 33 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 27 | 27 | 40 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 75 | 75 | 50 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 75 | 75 | 75 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 75 | 75 | 100 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 75 | 75 | 116 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 43.630 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 40.990 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 25.0, against a straight team-game pace of 25. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1406); median finish 25. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .291 |
| 2026-09-25 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 8-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .286 |
| 2026-09-24 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 5-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .285 |
| 2026-09-23 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 4-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .283 |
| 2026-09-22 | Philadelphia Phillies | L 4-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .283 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Jackson Chourio's leadoff home run2026-10-14 · Jackson Chourio led off the game with a home run — his 2nd since July 12
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Jackson Chourio's walk-off single2026-10-04 · Jackson Chourio's walk-off single in the 9th beat the Padres 4-3
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Jackson Chourio's go-ahead two-run single2026-09-07 · Jackson Chourio's go-ahead single in the 8th put the Brewers ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Cubs
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001