n=176 near this checkpoint
Why he matters right now
Chase Burns is top-10 in the majors in wins and ERA
He is 3rd in wins at 15, 9th in ERA at 2.79 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED pitcher in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
This has been his headline for 24 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 15 3rd in wins at 15, 9th in ERA at 2.79 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 2.79 ERA over 145 innings, with 171 strikeouts, 26 starts and a 1.16 WHIP snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
His four-seamer has averaged 96.2 mph over his last 3 starts against a 97.7 mph baseline. That is a measured change in the pitch, not a diagnosis of the pitcher. It does not undo the case above; it is the part of the record that argues the other way.
What to watch next
29 more to reach 200 SO.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- 3rd in wins at 15, 9th in ERA at 2.79 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 96.2 vs 97.7 ± 0.42 mph baseline over 15 starts (z = -3.59) stuff-watch gates, calibrated against the season's own variance
- ERA over 145 innings, with 171 strikeouts, 26 starts and a 1.16 WHIP snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Chase Burns's four-seamer has been sitting below his own baseline.
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | IP | ERA | SO | WHIP | AVG against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 55.2 | — | 63 | 0.88 | .191 |
| vs LHP | 87.1 | — | 108 | 1.36 | .237 |
| Home | 73.1 | 2.09 | 78 | 1.10 | .195 |
| Away | 72.0 | 3.50 | 93 | 1.21 | .242 |
| Day | 59.0 | 1.83 | 63 | 0.98 | .198 |
| Night | 86.1 | 3.44 | 108 | 1.27 | .233 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
26G
26GS
145.1IP
15-3W-L
2.79ERA
1.16WHIP
171K
10.59K/9
0SV
Strikeout chase
| Chase | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200 K | 171 | 199 | 29 K · 6.7 per outing over 4.3 left | NEAR PACE |
| 250 K | 171 | 199 | 79 K · 18.4 per outing over 4.3 left | EXTREME |
| 300 K | 171 | 199 | 129 K · 30.0 per outing over 4.3 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 350 K | 171 | 199 | 179 K · 41.6 per outing over 4.3 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 383 K | 171 | 199 | 212 K · 49.3 per outing over 4.3 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
ERA & WHIP finish lines
| Finish | Current | Required rest-of-season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-2.00 ERA | 2.79 | -2.75 over about 24 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.75 ERA | 2.79 | -4.51 over about 24 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.50 ERA | 2.79 | -6.28 over about 24 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.00 WHIP | 1.16 | 0.06 | EXTREME |
| Sub-0.90 WHIP | 1.16 | -0.65 | IMPOSSIBLE |
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 5-4 | 5.0 | 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | Miami Marlins | W 1-0 | 7.0 | 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | Washington Nationals | L 2-8 | 5.1 | 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 10-2 | 6.0 | 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | Cleveland Guardians | L 5-6 | 5.0 | 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Seattle Mariners | W 4-2 | 5.0 | 6 |
| 2026-07-08 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 11-5 | 5.0 | 2 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Chase history
Stuff watch
Four-seamer velocity, start by start
Every start's average against his own trailing baseline of 97.7 ± 0.42 mph. Ringed dots sit more than one standard deviation under the baseline; last start 96.21 mph (2026-08-02).
- velocity · FF: 96.21 vs 97.72 ± 0.42 (z -3.59, 3 straight)
- velocity · SL: 88.62 vs 90.45 ± 0.86 (z -2.12, 3 straight)