88% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Colson Montgomery sits 41st of 50 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .215 average; 29 home runs; 79 RBI; 1 stolen base. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: batting average went from .216 to .215 since August 31.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 41st of 50 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .215 .731 OPS, 29 home runs, 79 RBI and 1 stolen base over 131 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
Next up: at Houston Astros.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 41st of 50 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .731 OPS, 29 home runs, 79 RBI and 1 stolen base over 131 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
0-for-3
W 5-1 vs Houston Astros · 2026-09-01
carries a .215 average into today
What to watch next
at Houston Astros
Daikin Park · 2:10 p.m. ET
Facing Hunter Brown
Colson Montgomery faces a right-hander in Hunter Brown. He is hitting .193 with 19 home runs in 342 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 342 | .193 | 19 | 49 | .676 |
| vs LHP | 152 | .263 | 10 | 30 | .857 |
| Home | 234 | .201 | 11 | 28 | .652 |
| Away | 260 | .227 | 18 | 51 | .803 |
| Day | 203 | .207 | 12 | 27 | .741 |
| Night | 291 | .220 | 17 | 52 | .724 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
131G
494AB
106H
.215AVG
29HR
79RBI
1SB
222B
03B
.731OPS
Chasing .400
.215Current AVG
153Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
132-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.465Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (126-for-86)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .215 | .215 | 1.128 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .215 | .215 | 1.337 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .215 | .215 | 1.465 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .215 | .215 | 1.512 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .215 | .215 | 1.919 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 29 | 34 | 21 in 24 g · 1 per 4.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 29 | 34 | 31 in 24 g · 1 per 2.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 29 | 34 | 33 in 24 g · 1 per 2.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 29 | 34 | 41 in 24 g · 1 per 2.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 29 | 34 | 44 in 24 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 106 | 124 | 94 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 106 | 124 | 119 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 106 | 124 | 144 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 106 | 124 | 156 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 1 | 1 | 49 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 1 | 1 | 79 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 1 | 1 | 99 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 1 | 1 | 129 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 22 | 26 | 28 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 22 | 26 | 38 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 22 | 26 | 45 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 79 | 93 | 46 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 79 | 93 | 71 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 79 | 93 | 96 in 24 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 79 | 93 | 112 in 24 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 52.350 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 47.910 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 32.8, against a straight team-game pace of 34. Exact beta-binomial over 96 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.8%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=751); median finish 32. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Houston Astros | W 5-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .215 |
| 2026-08-31 | Houston Astros | L 3-6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | .216 |
| 2026-08-30 | Minnesota Twins | L 1-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .211 |
| 2026-08-29 | Minnesota Twins | W 3-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .213 |
| 2026-08-28 | Minnesota Twins | W 7-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .214 |
| 2026-08-25 | Texas Rangers | W 11-7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .211 |
| 2026-08-24 | Texas Rangers | L 2-11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .211 |
| 2026-08-23 | New York Mets | W 2-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .213 |
| 2026-08-22 | New York Mets | L 5-10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .215 |
| 2026-08-21 | New York Mets | W 6-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .217 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 138 team games; 58 in 2001