87% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Jackson Merrill sits 45th of 50 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .241 average; 22 home runs; 70 RBI; 24 stolen bases. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: batting average went from .242 to .241 since August 31.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 45th of 50 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .241 .711 OPS, 22 home runs, 70 RBI and 24 stolen bases over 137 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 45th of 50 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .711 OPS, 22 home runs, 70 RBI and 24 stolen bases over 137 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
0-for-3
L 3-4 vs Cincinnati Reds · 2026-09-01
carries a .241 average into today
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 376 | .223 | 18 | 47 | .707 |
| vs LHP | 155 | .284 | 4 | 23 | .722 |
| Home | 256 | .246 | 8 | 34 | .716 |
| Away | 275 | .236 | 14 | 36 | .707 |
| Day | 192 | .271 | 11 | 25 | .829 |
| Night | 339 | .224 | 11 | 45 | .645 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
137G
531AB
128H
.241AVG
22HR
70RBI
24SB
222B
33B
.711OPS
Chasing .400
.241Current AVG
141Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
125-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.364Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (120-for-88)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .241 | .241 | 1.011 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .241 | .241 | 1.227 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .241 | .241 | 1.364 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .241 | .241 | 1.409 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .241 | .241 | 1.830 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 22 | 26 | 28 in 23 g · 1 per 3.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 22 | 26 | 38 in 23 g · 1 per 2.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 22 | 26 | 40 in 23 g · 1 per 2.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 22 | 26 | 48 in 23 g · 1 per 1.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 22 | 26 | 51 in 23 g · 1 per 1.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 128 | 149 | 72 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 128 | 149 | 97 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 128 | 149 | 122 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 128 | 149 | 134 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 24 | 28 | 26 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 24 | 28 | 56 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 24 | 28 | 76 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 24 | 28 | 106 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 22 | 26 | 28 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 22 | 26 | 38 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 22 | 26 | 45 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 3 | 3 | 17 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 3 | 3 | 22 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 3 | 3 | 33 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 70 | 82 | 55 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 70 | 82 | 80 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 70 | 82 | 105 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 70 | 82 | 121 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 38.190 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 36.660 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 24.9, against a straight team-game pace of 26. Exact beta-binomial over 95 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1637); median finish 24. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Cincinnati Reds | L 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .241 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cincinnati Reds | W 5-0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .242 |
| 2026-08-30 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .239 |
| 2026-08-29 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 6-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .239 |
| 2026-08-28 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 4-9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .241 |
| 2026-08-26 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 3-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .239 |
| 2026-08-25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .236 |
| 2026-08-24 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .238 |
| 2026-08-23 | Minnesota Twins | W 8-1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .240 |
| 2026-08-22 | Minnesota Twins | W 7-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .241 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001