Historic Chases · 2026-04-11 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-04-11

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Riley Greene hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 15 ▶︎ watch; Bo Bichette hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 15 ▶︎ watch.

Andy Pages is hitting OVER .400. Needs a .396 clip the rest of the way to finish at .400.

Andy Pages sits at .442 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 4 HR and 5 SB, projecting to 46/58. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Power and speed in the same season is the whole story from here.

The .400 chase: Andy Pages went 1-for-3 last night and saw his average slip 7 points to .442. He is OVER .400.

Lines of the night: The Seattle Mariners came back from 5 runs down to win 8-7, and the Houston Astros blew a 5-run lead; Julio Rodríguez hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 15 ▶︎ watch.

History movers: Wilyer Abreu — Hits: 20 now, pace 231, record 262 (Ichiro Suzuki, 2004) · Shea Langeliers — Franchise Home Runs: 5 now, pace 57.9, record 58 (Jimmie Foxx, 1932).

Sweep watch: the Padres swept the Rockies (3 games).

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 4 HR / 5 SB, projecting to 46/58. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Andy Pages carries a .442 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .396 clip the rest of the way (218-for-550). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .394; an 0-for-4 raises it to .399.

On this date in 1990, 2 Angels pitchers combined for a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 4 HR / 5 SB — 26 homers and 25 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 46/58.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 6 home runs through 15 team games, 1 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (7). Comparable chases finished with a median of 27 (95% CI 26-27); 2% reached 50 (1.4-2.8% at 95% confidence), from 1545 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-1 season

If Andy Pages finishes at the current projection of 266, it would be the most hits in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 54 home runs, set by Matt Olson in 2023. Drake Baldwin projects to 54 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Yordan Alvarez is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least 190 hits, and 60 HR. Only 2 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. It is the tightest of 2 statistical combinations the engine checked. The recent company includes Sammy Sosa (1998), Babe Ruth (1927).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400