Historic Chases · 2026-04-12 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-04-12

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Trea Turner hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 15 ▶︎ watch; Kevin McGonigle hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 16 ▶︎ watch.

Andy Pages is hitting OVER .400. Needs a .397 clip the rest of the way to finish at .400.

Andy Pages sits at .429 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 50/50 pace — 5 HR and 6 SB, projecting to 54/65. Only Shohei Ohtani has ever done it, 54/59 in 2024. Power and speed in the same season is the whole story from here.

The .400 chase: Andy Pages went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 13 points to .429. He is OVER .400.

Lines of the night: Tanner Murray hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; The Chicago Cubs came back from 5 runs down to win 7-6, and the Pittsburgh Pirates blew a 5-run lead; Jorge Mateo — a bench bat with 7 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch; Mason Englert earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Dylan Dodd earned his first career save ▶︎ watch.

History movers: Jordan Walker, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 7 now, pace 75.6, record 70 (Mark McGwire, 1998) · James Wood, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 5 now, pace 54, record 46 (Alfonso Soriano, 2006).

Sweep watch: the Padres swept the Rockies (4 games). 5 other clubs were swept the same night.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 50/50 pace — 5 HR / 6 SB, projecting to 54/65. Only one player has ever done it — Shohei Ohtani's 54/59 in 2024. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Andy Pages carries a .429 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .397 clip the rest of the way (218-for-549). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .394; an 0-for-4 raises it to .400.

Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Tigers and the Mariners, level on 7-9, with the Blue Jays (6-9) 2 games back.

On this date in 1992, Matt Young of the Red Sox threw a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 5 HR / 6 SB — 25 homers and 24 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 54/65.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Jordan Walker versus the great home-run seasons

Jordan Walker has 7 home runs through 15 team games, even with Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (7). Comparable chases finished with a median of 29 (95% CI 28-31); 3.2% reached 50 (2.1-4.8% at 95% confidence), from 686 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-1 season

If Jordan Walker finishes at the current projection of 76, it would be the most home runs in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 54 home runs, set by Ralph Kiner in 1949. Oneil Cruz projects to 54 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Jordan Walker is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Jordan Walker would reach at least .320 AVG, 60 HR, and 150 RBI. Only 2 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. It is the tightest of 4 statistical combinations the engine checked. The recent company includes Sammy Sosa (2001), Babe Ruth (1927).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400