Historic Chases · 2026-05-11 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-11

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Ryan Weathers carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 61 times, projecting to 241. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

Brandon Marsh sits at .353 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 10 HR and 15 SB, projecting to 40/59. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Power and speed in the same season is the whole story from here.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 10 HR / 15 SB, projecting to 40/59. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Brandon Marsh carries a .353 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .417 clip the rest of the way (164-for-393). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .414; an 0-for-4 raises it to .422.

Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the White Sox (19-21), with the Tigers (19-22) half a game back.

On this date in 1996, Al Leiter of the Marlins threw a no-hitter (one of 3 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 15 SB — 20 homers and 15 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 40/59.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 16 home runs through 42 team games, 4 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (20). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42 (95% CI 41-44); 17.2% reached 50 (11.4-25.1% at 95% confidence), from 116 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-6 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 63, it would rank No. 6 among all seasons since 1901 — only 5 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, 15 SB, and 110 RBI. Only 2 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. It is the tightest of 3 statistical combinations the engine checked. The recent company includes Aaron Judge (2022), Sammy Sosa (1998).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400