No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Paul Skenes carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch; Mike Yastrzemski hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 39 ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-05-12 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Munetaka Murakami has struck out 63 times, projecting to 249. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 3rd in MLB in home runs (15) — one every 9.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
Brandon Marsh sits at .350 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.
The .400 chase: Brandon Marsh went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 3 points to .350. That is 137 at-bats over 42 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 10 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.
Lines of the night: Dominic Smith — a bench bat with 32 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch; Joey Ortiz hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 32 ▶︎ watch.
History movers: Liam Hicks — Franchise RBI: 35 now, pace 135, record 132 (Giancarlo Stanton, 2017).
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 17 home runs through 42 team games, a 66-homer pace — 3 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (20 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The .400 burndown: Brandon Marsh carries a .350 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .419 clip the rest of the way (164-for-391). That is .002 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .416; an 0-for-4 raises it to .424.
Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the White Sox (20-21), with the Rangers (20-22) half a game back.
On this date in 2001, A.J. Burnett of the Marlins threw a no-hitter (one of 3 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 15 SB — 20 homers and 15 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 39/58.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 17 home runs through 42 team games, 3 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (20). Comparable chases finished with a median of 43 (95% CI 42-44); 19.7% reached 50 (12.1-30.4% at 95% confidence), from 71 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-3 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 66, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 54 home runs, set by Matt Olson in 2023. Matt Olson projects to 54 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 100 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.350AVG
12 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
17HR
66 projected HR · 3 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
55H
212 projected H · 13 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
17SB
66 projected SB · 17 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
152B
58 projected 2B · 2 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
33B
12 projected 3B · 6 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.310· 13 HR · 29 RBI
11 / 5 / 11 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
10/15HR/SB
39/58 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 6 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
29W
112 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Braves
+90
+347 projected run differential