Historic Chases · 2026-05-13 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-13

Daulton Varsho hit a WALK-OFF GRAND SLAM ▶︎ watch.

James Wood has struck out 64 times, projecting to 241. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: Byron Buxton, after a two-homer night — Franchise Home Runs: 15 now, pace 56.5, record 49 (Harmon Killebrew, 1964) · Matt Olson — Franchise RBI: 37 now, pace 139.4, record 139 (Matt Olson, 2023).

Lines of the night: The Washington Nationals came back from 5 runs down to win 8-7, and the Cincinnati Reds blew a 5-run lead; Santiago Espinal hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 21 ▶︎ watch.

Sweep watch: the Guardians swept the Angels (3 games).

The .400 chase: Brandon Marsh went 0-for-3 last night and saw his average slip 7 points to .343. That is 140 at-bats over 43 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 10 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 17 home runs through 43 team games, a 64-homer pace — 5 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (22 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Brandon Marsh carries a .343 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .421 clip the rest of the way (163-for-387). That is .002 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .418; an 0-for-4 raises it to .426.

Wild-card watch: the AL's last wild-card spot belongs to a losing record — the Rangers (21-22) hold it, with the Mariners (21-23) half a game back.

On this date in 2007, Fred Lewis hit for the cycle.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 15 SB — 20 homers and 15 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 38/57.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 17 home runs through 43 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (22). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42 (95% CI 40-44); 15.6% reached 50 (10.5-22.5% at 95% confidence), from 141 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-5 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 64, it would rank No. 5 among all seasons since 1901 — only 4 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 139 RBI, set by Matt Olson in 2023. Matt Olson projects to 139 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 100 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400