Historic Chases · 2026-09-20

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-20

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) homered for the 45th time and stole his 38th base — with 45 home runs banked, he is two steals from a 40/40 season; Corbin Carroll (320) passed Chad Tracy (318) on the Diamondbacks' all-time RBI list.

The Athletics have lost 6 straight, and are 3-7 in their last 10.

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) struck out four over three innings without an earned run. His four-seam averaged 100.8 mph, up 0.2 on the 100.6 he had averaged over his first 25 starts — the hardest four-seam among the 141 starters tracked this season. Four of the 7,102 full-schedule qualified starter seasons the AL and NL have played since 1920 have finished a full schedule above it: Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019, Spencer Strider's 13.55 in 2023, Randy Johnson's 13.41 in 2001 and Pedro Martinez's 13.20 in 1999. Above them on a short schedule: Shane Bieber's 14.20, over the 77.1 innings of 2020 and Jacob deGrom's 13.76, over the 68.0 innings of 2020. It is a board position and not a record: the rate carries about 0.84 of sampling error over 169.1 innings, and no partial-season history exists to say how often a rate this high in August survives to October. He has 247 strikeouts.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.13 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

Lines of the night: Nolan Arenado hit a grand slam — and drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Two go-ahead plays: Rafael Flores Jr.'s go-ahead home run in the 8th put the Pirates ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Royals ▶︎ watch; Leo Bernal's tiebreaking home run in the 8th put the Cardinals ahead for good in a 5-3 win over the Nationals ▶︎ watch. A PITCHERS' DUEL in one game: Emmet Sheehan went 5.1 scoreless with 9 strikeouts; Matt Wilkinson went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch. Griffin Jax went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) reached 350 total bases for the season.

Also last night: Two scoreless runs: Spencer Miles has not allowed a run in his last 17 innings; Seranthony Domínguez has not allowed a run in his last 12 innings.

Went deep more than once: Iván Herrera hit 2 home runs — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch; Jake Cronenworth (SD) hit 2 home runs, driving in 5 ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 153 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.4% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 78 in 685 this season); Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 115 in 510 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 495 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 780 rate comparisons across 150 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Sweep watch: the Dodgers swept the Giants (3 games) — their 4th sweep in 31 days. Only 11.2% of team-seasons since 1897 have swept 4 clubs inside 30 days — 340 of 3043. 5 other clubs were swept the same night.

For the second straight night: Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 46, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH)

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 45 home runs through 156 team games, a 47-homer pace — 24 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (69 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 156 team games, 24 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (69). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-46); 2.5% reached 50 (0.9-7.2% at 95% confidence), from 119 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play
Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 43 and would finish 3 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.37 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (86% similarity). The match is strongest in average, speed, run production; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Closest to .400
.313AVG
79 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
IMPOSSIBLE
Home Run Leader
45HR
47 projected HR · 24 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
185H
192 projected H · 67 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
46SB
48 projected SB · 79 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
392B
40 projected 2B · 26 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
163B
17 projected 3B · 19 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
247K
256 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
IMPOSSIBLE
ERA Leader
1.86ERA
169.1 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
.313AVG · 40 HR · 99 RBI
leads AVG, 1 back HR, 6 back RBI 1.3% over 20,000 simulated seasons · full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
45/38HR/SB
47/39 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 2 others in the hunt
ACHIEVED
Saves Leader
Bryan BakerTB
40SV
42 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
BrewersMIL
98W
102 projected wins · record 116
IMPOSSIBLE
Run Differential Leader
BrewersMIL
+202
+210 projected run differential