Historic Chases · 2026-09-21

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-21

Pete Alonso (BAL) reached 40 home runs and 300 total bases for the season; THE SAME GAME produced both: Aaron Sabato made his MLB DEBUT and went 0-for-3; Bo Davidson made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-4.

The Athletics have lost 6 straight, and are 3-7 in their last 10.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.13 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 153 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.4% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 78 in 685 this season); Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 115 in 510 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 495 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 780 rate comparisons across 150 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Also last night: Pete Alonso's go-ahead home run in the 8th put the Orioles ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Blue Jays — and he hit 2 home runs — in his first season with the Orioles ▶︎ watch; Roki Sasaki was activated off the injured list — he had not appeared since August 19, 33 days; Andy Pages was activated off the injured list — he had not appeared since August 21, 31 days.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 45 home runs through 156 team games, a 47-homer pace — 24 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (69 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 2 stolen bases for a 40/40 season; he has 45 home runs and 38 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Miami Marlins.

Taj Bradley (MIN) is the probable starter and needs 1 strikeout to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: San Francisco Giants.

Logan Gilbert (SEA) is the probable starter and needs 6 strikeouts to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: Houston Astros.

Jackson Merrill (SD) has a 11-game hitting streak; a hit in his next game would extend it to 12. Next scheduled opponent: Los Angeles Dodgers.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 156 team games, 24 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (69). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-46); 2.5% reached 50 (0.9-7.2% at 95% confidence), from 119 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 43 and would finish 3 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.37 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (86% similarity). The match is strongest in average, speed, run production; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400