Historic Chases · 2026-07-18

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-18

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Cam Sanders earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch; Ryan Watson earned his FIRST career win.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 145 times, projecting to 237. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (33) — one every 10.8 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL Central is a coin flip: Guardians (52-47) and Sox (51-46) are even in the standings — zero games back. The WSH single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 46 and projects to tie it.

History movers: Athletics (Run Differential) down 72 → 64; Red Sox (Win Streak) up 76 → 80.

Lines of the night: J.T. Ginn carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch.

Milestones reached last night: Jordan Walker reached 75 RBI; Bryan Reynolds reached 100 hits; Alec Burleson reached 100 hits; Rafael Devers reached 20 HR.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 1 point to .335. The gap to .400 is now .065.

The so-what: through 99 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 12 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (45 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .335 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .502 clip the rest of the way (124-for-247). That is .004 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .498; an 0-for-4 raises it to .510.

Tightest race: the AL Central — Guardians (52-47) and Sox (51-46) are even in the standings, zero games back.

Year-over-year: the Sox are 51-46 — 18 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (33-65).

From nowhere: Junior Caminero is now 4th in MLB in home runs — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 5th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 25 SB — 9 homers short and 5 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/41.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 33 home runs through 99 team games, 10 behind Mark McGwire's 1998 pace at the same checkpoint (43). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 26.9% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-20 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The WSH single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 46 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400